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Why Boko Haram remains a threat

If the recent footage released by the
military is anything to go by,
Nigerians may have reason for
optimism about the government's
ongoing battle against the Islamist
militant group Boko Haram.
The Nigerian military says the footage
shows Boko Haram fighters on trucks and
motorcycles fleeing aerial bombardment
by the Air Force, in a recent operation in
the Sambisa forest - thought to be the
militants' last stronghold in Nigeria.
Over the past week alone, the military
says hundreds of women and children
have been rescued as part of an ongoing
offensive against the group.
The latest developments mean that the
Nigerian military has not only reclaimed
many towns in the north-east previously
under Boko Haram control, but are now
pushing further to rout them from their
final hideouts
By starting to provide more documentary
evidence to back up its claims of success,
the Nigerian military has shown it is
willing to get involved in the propaganda
war as well.
Before that, the images from Boko Haram,
including militants carrying out atrocities
and their leader Abubakar Shekau
taunting the government, instilled fear
and hopelessness in the minds of many.
The last broadcast from Shekau was his
pledge of allegiance to Islamic State in an
audio clip in March.
But as we have seen from his group in the
past, silence does not always imply that
they have been significantly weakened.
Attacks credited to Boko Haram continue
in both Nigeria and neighbouring
countries.
Army commanders say they don't often
find many bodies of the insurgents after
battle, suggesting that the jihadists carry
away their dead with them as they retreat.
It's not clear if any senior Boko Haram
figures have been captured during the
recent operations, says Ryan Cummings,
Chief Africa Analyst for the risk
management firm Red24.
"With the leadership of the group still
intact, Boko Haram may continue to
possess the acumen to replenish, regroup,
and rearm both within and outside of
Nigeria's borders."
Then there is also the argument that until
factors like poverty, unemployment and
lack of education can be addressed, local
populations will remain vulnerable to
extremist ideology.
Apart from the Sambisa forest, a vast area
based around a nature reserve of the same
name, the group is also known to operate
in the Mandara Mountains, which lie on
the poorly-manned Cameroon-Nigeria
border.
Fighting the group here would require
greater cooperation between both
countries - something that has been
lacking - to combat their common enemy.
Nigeria's President-elect Muhammadu
Buhari, a former military leader, says one
of his first moves after assuming office
will be to call a meeting of the regional
leaders on a more proactive collaboration
to end the conflict.
Boko Haram at a glance
Founded in 2002, initially focused on
opposing Western-style education -
Boko Haram means "Western
education is forbidden" in the Hausa
language
Launched military operations in 2009
to create Islamic state
Thousands killed, mostly in north-
eastern Nigeria - has also attacked
police and UN headquarters in capital,
Abuja
Has abducted hundreds, including at
least 200 schoolgirls
Seized vast area in north-east, where it
declared caliphate
Regional force has retaken most
territory
Gen Buhari says the outgoing Nigerian
government did not do enough to harness
a suitable regional response.
Frosty cross-border relations have
affected the military operations, with
resentment and mistrust between Nigeria
and its neighbours.
For a long time Boko Haram fighters were
able to cross the border at will, to carry
out attacks and to escape any army
responses but now their movements have
been limited by the joint regional forces.
In Nigeria, Gen Buhari is expected to
reshuffle the top brass of the military to
bring in top officials who can add more
zest or possibly a fresh strategy to the
ongoing offensive, in spite of the recent
successes on the frontline.
The Nigerian military is keen to redeem
its image in the international scene,
having been accused by human rights
organisations of carrying out abuses in its
crackdown against Boko Haram.
It promised to investigate these
allegations but it has not released the
findings, although soldiers have been
facing courts-martial as the force attempts
to show it is tackling what it calls
indiscipline within its ranks.
This could be a way of winning back
military support from the West,
particularly the US, in form of advanced
training and supply of hardware.
Nigeria says the lack of equipment slowed
down its counter-insurgency operations,
with the government taking up other
options, including the controversial move
to employ private security companies.
Reports in March said that hundreds of
these "military trainers" from South
Africa and former Soviet Union countries
were operating on the front lines in
military operations against Boko Haram.
The Nigerian government has not
specified whether these personnel have
ever been involved in direct combat.
The recent gains against Boko Haram are
a boost for both the Nigerian military and
for President Goodluck Jonathan as he
prepares to finish his term at the end of
May.
Boko Haram is still active in Nigeria,
across the border in Cameroon and with
traces in Niger.
The influence and support of Islamic State
implies that the insurgency is far from
over and could get even more
sophisticated.

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